Recession Over?

Physician's Money Digest, October31 2003, Volume 10, Issue 20

The National Bureau of EconomicResearch, which makes the call onwhen recessions begin and end, has pinpointedNovember 2001 as the officialend of the latest economic downturn.Many stock market investors may disputethat date, however. One of thestrongest market axioms is the 1 thatpredicts the market will show healthygains within 12 months after a recessionends, a maxim that has proved truein every recession over the past 50years, with the market averaging a19% gain a year after a downturnended. In contrast, the S&P 500 lost20% between November 2001 and November2002. Even the most recentsurge in stock prices hasn't moved themarket into positive territory comparedwith where it was at the officialend of the recession.