CLOUDY CRYSTAL BALL

Where the postwar economy isheaded is still anybody's guess.Positive signs like lower oil priceshave suddenly appeared less rosy, asincreased Israeli-Palestinian tensionsand heightened terrorist activityhave spooked the oil market.And gloomy job statistics show aneconomy that is slow to recover,shedding jobs instead of addingthem. On the other hand, consumerconfidence, usually a signal thatAmericans are willing to open theirwallets and buy, has reboundednicely from prewar lows, and thestock market's venture into theblack for the year has done a lot toimprove the market's psyche. Thekey is corporate spending, mostfinancial gurus say, and many predictthat the third quarter will showa budding recovery in that area.